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July 2003
Drugs and numerology
 MY, my, the Tita and
her officials have been so terribly busy running around trying to solve
the drug problem.
What's so fascinating is the way this latest campaign has bandied
numbers around, almost as if guided by a corps of accomplished
numerologists.
A few weeks back, to launch the current campaign, one senator made the
headlines by declaring we had three million Filipinos who regularly take
prohibited drugs. The next day, a congressman made the headlines by
protesting that figure of three million and claiming it should be nine
million.
Do I hear a bid now for 12 million? No?
Maybe we should stick to nine million. I'm sure the country's many
numerologists will approve. Nine has a nice lucky ring to it. Maybe make
that 9,999,999. We need to have the drug problem sounding really
serious, the way a 999.99-peso price tag gives the impression of
quality. At the same time, you don't want to tip the scales and round
off to 1,000 pesos because psychologically, it drives people away. In
the same token, a figure of 10 million for drug abusers might indicate
incompetence and corruption on the part of our officials.
Not that people haven't started wondering. But people are still at the
"9999999" stage, where they want to think that we won't quite
reach the critical point of no return. So we praise heaven whenever some
politician and wannabe politician comes up with a new flea-brained
scheme to solve the drug problem.
For two years now, we've allowed the Land Transportation Office (LTO) to
herd us into filthy cubicles where we were literally robbed: first made
to pee, then hand over 300 pesos for a drug test notorious for false
positives (meaning people not taking drugs coming out positive) and,
worse, false negatives (people on drugs coming out negative).
After two years of mandatory peeing and testing, are our streets safer?
Just yesterday an LTO official said that out of the latest round of 1.9
million drug tests, they found 13,285 positive. The official declared,
too, that the tests showed methamphetamine hydrochloride, locally known
as "shabu," and marijuana were the preferred prohibited drugs.
Gut reaction: Imagine that, thanks to the LTO, we got thousands of
marijuana and shabu dependents off the streets.
Really now. First, the LTO tests only check for two drugs. I give you
two guesses what they are.
But I was more interested in the numbers. Grab a calculator and you'll
find that 13,285 out of 1.9 million comes out to less than one percent.
To be precise, that's about seven per 1,000, a statistic that stands in
stark contrast to the more conservative claim of one congressman that we
have three million drug dependents. Divide that three million by 40
million, the number of adult Filipinos, and we have a figure of one in
every 12.
Put another way, if indeed one out of every 12 Filipinos is hooked, then
it means that out of 1.9 million license applicants, you should have
something like 158,333 positives (wow, lucky 3's!). But the LTO bagged
only 13,000. Your hunches are as good as mine. Did all the others just
decide not to take the test? Or did they take the test but paid their
way to have the results altered? Or have shabu users learned to just
abstain from the drug for a few days, knowing their urine would then
test negative? Or are those three million and nine million figures all
the products of hocus-pocus numerology?
All that is, of course, irrelevant to the government. The Tita needs to
show she cares and, boy, is she trying hard, for example visiting the
LTO and berating officials for closing early and selling overpriced
early warning devices. The other day, goodness, she actually began to
direct traffic.
Don't get me wrong. All that's fine, but I think the Tita is much better
at other caring tasks. Paying homage to Imperial America, for one. Or
taunting the Muslims in the south, for another (of course, right before
running to Papa Bush for support). And lately, threatening the drug
syndicates.
Already, we're seeing results. The other night the television newscasts
blared out the latest arrests: 600-plus drug dependents and 600-plus
drug pushers.
Teka, teka, teka (wait, wait, wait -- really, the Inquirer should do
something about this translating policy), isn't there something wrong
here? First, I didn't see the Tita wagging her finger at those arrested.
Second, oh the numbers again. Isn't it strange you have about the same
number of drug pushers and drug dependents? Even stranger is the way
this fits into the trends of the arrests. The Philippine Drug
Enforcement Agency (PDEA) announced recently that in the last year it
apprehended 15,718 people on drug raps, broken down to 8,881 suspected
drug users and 6,803 suspected pushers, drug cultivators and importers.
So many lucky 8's but hey, that's a ratio of 1.3 customers for every 1
pusher/cultivator/importer. Calling the Department of Trade and
Industry: Someone better conduct seminars on marketing for the drug
syndicates.
There's more. The PDEA total isn't a total: 8,881 plus 6,803 equals
15,684, not 15,718. Paging the Department of Education: We need someone
to check if our law enforcers know how to count. If they can't get their
number of arrests right, should we be surprised how they sometimes go
off with their inventories of confiscated drugs, missing a few thousand
ecstasy pills here, a few hundred kilograms of shabu there?
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